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The PRT concept germinated in the early 1950s and received enough attention by the mid 1960s to be the subject of government-funded analysis. By the early 1970s, there were many competing ideas on how to design automated transit systems, but there was no theory of PRT and there were insufficient funds to explore the dozens of alternative design features. This "Tower of Babel" discouraged decision makers, caused government funding to dry up, and left the continued search for an optimum configuration up to a few people.
A major reason it was possible in the 1980s to carry PRT research and development far enough to regain the attention of major transit decision makers was the emergence of the personal computer and associated software. Finding the optimum transit configuration and proving it required sophisticated and data-intensive engineering and economic calculations, detailed simulations of control and vehicle dynamics, and a great deal of data processing, which during the 1970s was much slower and required large resources, generally funded only by governments. The PC enabled engineers of ordinary means to purchase enough computer power to develop the optimum system and element designs. In parallel, the development of powerful fault-tolerant microprocessors and software elements have placed the control requirements of PRT well within the current state-of-art.
While many
new ideas have emerged from institutional research during this century,
new ideas in previous centuries generally emerged only when the
individuals who discovered and developed them could do so without
anyone else's approval. Development of PRT required understanding of
engineering sciences and sophisticated technology of the 20th century
melded with the individual initiative of earlier centuries, a marriage
made possible by the low-cost, high-performance personal computer.
The
PC and the microcomputer, coupled with the development of the necessary
transit systems theory, test and operational experience with a wide
variety of automated transit systems, the realization that conventional
rail transit systems cannot solve the problems of congestion in cities,
and the steady worsening of congestion and air pollution have made it
possible for the idea of PRT to reemerge.
Careful
research over decades has shown no flaw that will or should stop the
development of PRT, but rather that PRT is a badly needed solution to a
variety of transit problems. It is a new configuration of now very
ordinary parts well within the current state-of-art.
Development
of new concepts in public transportation differs from development of
many other emerging concepts in that the resources needed to prove a
concept are large, many people are involved in deciding to take a
positive step, the level of credibility must be unusually high, and the
"fear factor" that drove military programs is not present. In such
circumstances, it is not surprising that several decades have been
required to bring the concept of PRT to maturity.
A relevant quote from Machiavelli's masterpiece "The Prince":
"It
must be realized that there is nothing more difficult to plan, more
uncertain of success, or more dangerous to manage than the
establishment of a new order of government [or a new system (J. Edward Anderson)];
for he who introduces it makes enemies of all those who derived
advantage from the old order and finds but lukewarm defenders among
those who stand to gain from the new one. Such a lukewarm attitude
grows partly out of fear of the adversaries, who have the law on their
side, and partly from the incredulity of men in general, who actually
have no faith in new things until they have been proved by experience.
Hence it happens that whenever those in the enemy camp have a chance to
attack, they do so with partisan fervor, while the others defend
themselves rather passively, so that both they and the prince are
endangered."
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